
Fresno State (9-13, 4-8 Mountain West)
Overall Record
| Record | % chance | 15 seed | 16 | Miss |
| | 0.06% | 0.15% | 99.79% |
| 17-13 | 0.17% | 0.0% | 0.01% | 0.16% |
| 16-14 | 1.94% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 1.92% |
| 15-15 | 8.93% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 8.88% |
| 14-16 | 21.41% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 21.36% |
| 13-17 | 28.74% | 0.0% | 0.05% | 28.69% |
| 12-18 | 23.7% | 0.0% | 0.03% | 23.67% |
| 11-19 | 11.65% | 0.0% | 0.01% | 11.63% |
| 10-20 | 3.14% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.14% |
| 9-21 | 0.33% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.33% |
Conference Record
| Record | % chance | 15 seed | 16 | Miss |
| | 0.06% | 0.15% | 99.79% |
| 12-8 | 0.17% | 0.0% | 0.01% | 0.16% |
| 11-9 | 1.94% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 1.92% |
| 10-10 | 8.93% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 8.88% |
| 9-11 | 21.41% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 21.36% |
| 8-12 | 28.74% | 0.0% | 0.05% | 28.69% |
| 7-13 | 23.7% | 0.0% | 0.03% | 23.67% |
| 6-14 | 11.65% | 0.0% | 0.01% | 11.63% |
| 5-15 | 3.14% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.14% |
| 4-16 | 0.33% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.33% |
Mountain West Projected Standings